Куда приведет развитие интернет-технологий?

В последнее время в прессе стали появляться сообщения о замедлении темпа роста Internet. И вдруг недавно один из основателей Сети доктор Лоуренс Роберте опубликовал результаты исследований, согласно которым в США трафик в Internet в течение последнего года удваивался каждые полгода. В результате с апреля 2000 г. по апрель 2001 г. поток передаваемой информации вырос в четыре раза, что значительно превышает темпы роста до 1996 г., когда Internet-трафик увеличивался в 2,8 раза в год. Д-р Роберте 30 лет назад участвовал в создании сети ARPAnet — предшественницы Internet. Он пользуется большим авторитетом, благодаря чему ему и удалось провести такие исследования. Обычно провайдеры не разглашают данных о величине графика, чтобы этими сведениями не могли воспользоваться конкуренты. Однако Робертсу, имеющему давние связи среди ведущих специалистов отрасли, удалось заключить конфиденциальные соглашения с 19 крупнейшими провайдерами и выяснить, какое оборудование используют провайдеры и каков объем трафика в обычные дни и при пиковой нагрузке. Эти данные были взяты за апрель 2000 г., октябрь 2000 г. и апрель 2001 г.Роберте сделал выводы, значительно отличающиеся от оценок других экспертов. Так, сотрудники аналитической фирмы RHK утверждают, что за последний год трафик даже не удвоился, а вырос всего на 90% (год назад — на 128%). Они полагают, что Роберте ошибся, т. к. в четыре раза вырос не трафик, а пропускная способность магистралей Internet, поскольку за этот год большинство провайдеров перешли с оптоволоконных линий ОС-48 (скорость передачи 2,488 Гбит/с) на более быстродействующие ОС-192 (9,952 Гбит/с). По методике Робертса, заверяют они, подсчитывается общее число переданных пакетов, а если один пакет проходит через 3 или 4 провайдеров, то он учитывается 3 или 4 раза. Аналитики предположили, что Роберте заинтересован в высоких результатах, т. к. сейчас возглавляет молодую компанию Caspian Networks, занятую продажей оборудования для Internet-узлов.

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Не известно, правы они или нет, но у некоторых аналитиков сомнения в столь высоких темпах роста трафика вызывают финансовые затруднения в этом секторе и крах многих Internet-компаний. Однако Роберте утверждает, что не следует путать степень роста доходов Internet-провайдеров со скоростью роста трафика. А что касается Internet-компаний, то, по его мнению, их банкротство слабо сказывается на общей картине, поскольку их доля в суммарном графике никогда не превышала 5%. Основной вклад в рост Internet вносят предприятия, которые используют Сеть для внутренней и внешней связи вместо более дорогих выделенных линий. В результате, как считает Роберте, на предприятия в США сейчас приходится 80% Internet-трафика. Увеличение пропускной способности магистралей еще только начинается: провайдеры пока лишь развертывают оборудование ОС-192, купленное в прошлом году как раз для того, чтобы поддержать возросший трафик. Если данные Робертся верны, то в скором будущем Internet-провайдерам не хватит мощности даже этого оборудования и придется покупать дополнительное. В связи с этим в 2010 г. объем продаж мощных Internet-устройств может достигнуть $100 млрд.

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